Buyers trying to crack into the housing market next year may get the chance to purchase before the next big jump in prices.
A new forecast has revealed that slowing home-price growth next year could create a window of opportunity for buyers to get into the market before anticipated rate cuts stimulate more housing demand.Buyers with the means to purchase will be able to take advantage of an ongoing slowdown in the market next year, with the runaway price growth seen across much of the country over the past year finally easing.
Home prices are forecast to rise by between 1% and 4% at the national level, according to the PropTrack Property Market Outlook, released today.That modest growth is slower than the 5.5% growth recorded so far this year, with the high number of homes on the market and affordability constraints keeping prices in check.Report author and PropTrack director of economic research Cameron Kusher said a number of factors would drive the slowdown, including the high interest rate environment and the upcoming federal election.“With the rate of price growth slowing and interest rates expected to remain higher for longer, along with more properties coming to market for sale, it appears 2025 is set for weaker price growth than over recent years,” Mr Kusher said. the increased number of homes still on the market after an unusually busy spring selling season could also make things easier for buyers.
“Most capital cities have been seeing new listing volumes trending higher throughout 2024 as vendor willingness to put properties up for sale has increased,” he said.“Sydney and Melbourne are currently seeing total listing volumes at highs not seen in more than a decade.”
Yesteryears Trends:
Well-priced homes in good condition are selling fast, but buyers have some negotiating room.
Despite elevated mortgage rates and a continuing shortage of homes for sale, the 2023 market has some bright spots for buyers.
The frenzied competition of the past few years has settled down, home prices are stabilizing, and properties are staying on the market a little longer.
“It's not as crazy as it was," says Trevor Gearin, a real estate agent with Century 21 McLennan & Co. in Methuen, Massachusetts. "Six months ago, the buyers didn't have a chance to think. Now we're seeing buyers being able to negotiate a little."
If you're thinking about shopping for a home, here's what to expect and how to approach the market.
Home prices flattening
After big gains in the past three years, home prices are expected to stay flat.
The National Association of Realtors, or NAR, predicts median existing home prices will rise just 0.3% in 2023 — a stark contrast from the 9.6% year-over-year increase in 2022 and eye-popping 18.2% jump in 2021. Existing homes are those that were owned and occupied before going on the market. The NAR projects prices for new homes to creep up 1.3% in 2023 after double-digit gains in the past two years.
About half the country may see small price increases, while the other half may see slight declines, Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist, said in a press statement. "However, markets in California may be the exception, with San Francisco, for example, likely to register price drops of 10 to 15%."
Buyers already have more choices in some markets, but the supply of homes is still tight. In October, there was a 3.3-month supply of homes for sale, meaning it would take a little over three months for all available homes to sell at the current pace. In October 2021, there was a 2.4-month supply — but a balanced market has about a five- to six-month supply.
Buyers have more negotiating room
Sellers can't call all the shots the way they did a year ago.
"It's still a neutral market in some areas, but it's definitely shifting toward the buyer's benefit," says Ramez Tabri, an agent with Century 21 Real Estate Alliance in the San Francisco Bay Area. "There are really good deals to be had."
Some markets still favor the seller, but even there, buyers are standing firmer. For example, fewer buyers are giving up on home inspections, as many desperate shoppers did last year to win bidding wars. Some buyers are even getting sellers to pay some of their closing costs.
"That's something that a year ago was unheard of," says Nate Johnson, president of Real Estate Solutions at RedKey Realty Leaders in St. Louis.
Johnson says St. Louis is still a seller's market, and well-priced, well-maintained homes continue to sell fast. But other properties are sitting on the market longer, and premium properties are seeing fewer offers. "A year ago, a property may have gotten 10 offers," he says. "That same property is going to get three or four offers."
Mortgage rates stabilizing
Mortgage rates more than doubled in 2022, with the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rising from about 3% at the beginning of the year to more than 6% in December.
The 30-year fixed is expected to average from 5.2% to 6.8% in 2023, according to recent forecasts by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, the Mortgage Bankers Association and the NAR.
The Federal Reserve, which increased the federal funds rate by 4.25 percentage points in 2022 to quell inflation, isn't done raising rates. But it has stepped off the gas a little. The most recent increase in December was 0.50%, down from previous 0.75% hikes. Many lenders had built that bump into their rates, so economists don't predict a big jump as a result of the Fed's latest action.